In North Africa, Morocco traditionally ranks as the second-largest wheat producer after Egypt. However, the country has been grappling with persistent drought for over 5 years, potentially paving the way for Algeria to claim its position in 2024/2025.
In Algeria, wheat production is expected to rise by 11% to reach 3 million tons by the end of the 2024/2025 season, as indicated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a recent report released on May 10.
Behind these positive outlooks is the improvement in rainfall in the central and eastern production areas of the country, where precipitation has been more frequent. According to the USDA, the cultivated area is expected to remain unchanged at 1.8 million hectares, while crop yields are anticipated to increase by 11% to 1.67 tons per hectare.
More broadly, if this forecast materializes, it could allow Algeria to surpass Morocco and become the second-largest wheat producer in North Africa after Egypt for the third time in the past 5 years, following 2020/2021 and 2022/2023.
Indeed, in the Kingdom of Morocco, forecasts by the American agency indicate a 40% decline in harvests in 2024/2025 to 2.5 million tons and a reduction of 300,000 hectares of cultivated land.
The report states that limited and late rains during sowing in Morocco led to reduced sowing until January 2024. While farmers grow the vast majority of wheat without irrigation, a severe shortage of precipitation in the extensive cultivation regions in the central and southern parts of the country has diminished harvest prospects.”