A recent report by the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) recommends that Australia adopt a cautious approach towards Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
It suggests waiting until a mature market for this technology emerges in the 2040s before incorporating them into the country’s low-carbon energy mix.
This recommendation contrasts with the views of opposition leader Peter Dutton, who believes the first Australian SMRs could be operational before the end of the 2030s.
Urgent Need for Low-Carbon Technologies
With the impending retirement of existing coal-fired power plants, ATSE emphasizes the urgent need for mature, low-carbon technologies to bridge the energy supply gap.
SMRs have the potential to utilize existing transmission infrastructure and contribute to baseload or dispatchable power in a grid with high renewable energy penetration. However, the report cautions that early adoption of SMRs carries greater cost and technology risks.
Mature Market Expected in Mid-to-Late 2040s
The ATSE report, titled “Small Modular Reactors – The technology and Australian context explained,” predicts that while several prototype SMRs may be licensed, commissioned, and built in OECD countries by the mid-2030s, a mature market is unlikely to develop until the mid-to-late 2040s.
Pursuing an in-development or prototype SMR would entail higher technological and commercial risks. The report suggests that if Australia opts for early adoption, it would necessitate legislative reforms, securing social license, collaborating directly with developers, and building a skilled workforce.
Uncertainty Around Commercial Viability
ATSE President Katherine Woodthorpe acknowledges the potential of SMR technology to provide low-carbon energy compatible with Australia’s current electricity system.
However, she also notes the considerable uncertainty surrounding its commercial viability and some of its potential benefits, as it is still an emerging technology.
High Risk Compared to Existing Energy Options
Overall, Woodthorpe concludes that the associated timescales, expenses, skills gap, legal and regulatory hurdles, and social acceptance challenges make SMR technology a high-risk option compared to existing energy alternatives.
She advocates for “non-partisan analysis” to objectively assess technology readiness and the role of nuclear technology in the long term. However, she emphasizes that this should not divert attention from the rapid deployment of currently available renewable technologies.
Political Divide on Nuclear Power
Australia, despite being a major uranium producer, lacks nuclear power plants and heavily relies on coal for electricity generation.
The country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, with the current government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese supporting a transition to renewable energy. However, the opposition favors the introduction of nuclear power.
Dutton’s Advocacy for Nuclear Power
During a visit to Muswellbrook in New South Wales, a potential site for a future nuclear power plant, Dutton argued that the ATSE report underscores the need for reliable baseload power.
He believes that the first two nuclear units could be operational between 2035 and 2037 and cites local support for nuclear energy in Muswellbrook.
Technology-Neutral Approach
The ATSE maintains its support for a technology-neutral approach to the energy transition, which entails considering all options based on their merits.