China’s carbon dioxide emissions decreased in March for the first time since its economy reopened after the Covid-19 pandemic, suggesting a possible peak, according to a study.
The March decline resulted from an increase in renewable energy capacity, which covered almost all the growth in electricity demand during this period, and a collapse in construction.
If renewable energy capacity continues to grow at record levels, China’s emissions may have peaked in 2023, according to Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
In the study published on Carbon Brief, the researcher indicates that China’s carbon dioxide emissions dropped by 3% in March 2024 compared to the previous year, based on an analysis of official data.
For the first quarter, emissions remain higher than the previous year, explained by a very low comparison base in January and February 2023 after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in December 2022.
March is “the first month to provide a clear indication of emission trends after the post-Covid rebound,” according to the study published on Tuesday.
It aligns with last year’s projections and suggests key trends.
Increased solar and wind energy production stabilized electricity sector emissions, while steel production fell by 8% and cement production dropped by 22% compared to the previous year, reflecting an expected further slowdown in the construction sector.
The growing adoption of electric vehicles in China—10% of cars on the road according to seller data—continues to impact oil demand.
While electricity demand increased, particularly due to air conditioner purchases, nearly 90% of the additional demand in March was covered by renewable energy sources, highlights Lauri Myllyvirta.
Despite growth in capacity, wind and solar energy still only account for 15% of electricity production in China, and authorities are working to better integrate these sources into the grid.
China’s emissions trajectory remains uncertain, with experts divided on whether there will be an increase or a slowdown in the installation of renewable energy capacities.
Government economic growth targets also suggest that Beijing may still see an increase in emissions, according to the study.
Moreover, China continues to invest in coal, and although coal production capacity growth slightly slowed in the first quarter of the current year, a significant number of coal power plants are still under construction.