Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy consultancy, envisions Japan, a major importer of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), achieving energy independence by 2060.
He believes that a combination of expanded solar and wind power, coupled with storage batteries, could revolutionize Japan’s energy landscape.
Challenging the Import-Dependent Mindset
Japan currently imports the majority of its energy resources, primarily from the Middle East, Australia, and the United States. While the government aims to reduce LNG and coal reliance to under 40% of the power generation mix by 2030, analysts believe that progress is lagging.
Rystad challenges Japan’s traditional mindset of energy import dependence, stating, “With the development in renewable energy technologies, I think that statement doesn’t need to be true.”
Rystad’s Vision for Japan’s Energy Mix
Rystad envisions a future where Japan’s energy mix consists of 45% solar power, 30% wind generation (led by offshore farms), 5% hydropower, 5% biomass and e-fuel, and 15% nuclear power by 2060.
He emphasizes that Japan simply needs to continue installing solar power at the rate it did before 2020, when the country was adding between 10 and 12 gigawatts annually. Last year, Japan installed approximately 4 GW of new solar capacity, with a total outstanding capacity of 87 GW.
Innovative Solutions for Solar Expansion
Rystad suggests that combining agriculture with solar panels, utilizing solar rooftops above roads, and exploring other creative solutions can further expand the use of solar power in Japan.
“The combination of offshore and onshore wind and solar, geothermal and biomass with solid backup from both battery and pumped hydro, should actually enable Japan to see self-dependency in energy in 40 years, or by 2060 even,” Rystad concludes.
This ambitious vision offers a glimpse into a future where Japan can achieve energy independence through a diversified and sustainable energy mix, primarily driven by renewable sources.