In the latter half of 2023, East Africa saw sales of over 2.5 million units of off-grid solar energy kits, with Kenya emerging as the dominant market, accounting for 74% of total sales.
This marks a 14% rise from the first half of the year but signifies a 1% decline compared to the corresponding period in 2022.
Solar lantern sales outpaced cash sales, experiencing a 22% increase from the first half of the year, albeit 4% lower than the same period in 2022.
Although sales of 0-1.5Wp lanterns experienced a 33% increase, sales of larger lanterns equipped with phone charging capabilities remained steady compared to the first half of 2023.
“In their latest Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report: Semi-Annual Sales & Impact Data, covering July-December 2023, GOGLA reports that 42% of solar lanterns with phone charging capabilities were sold via PAYGo.”
Compared to the previous reporting round, PAYGo sales volumes increased by 5% and exceeded those of the same period in 2022 by 3%.
However, sales of multi-light systems declined by 15% since the first half of 2023 and were 20% lower than in the second half of 2022. PAYGo transactions accounted for 49% of the total sales in this round.
In general, sales of solar home systems decreased by 5% compared to the previous round, reaching 16% lower than in the second half of 2022. The decline in sales is particularly noticeable in the 11-20Wp category.
Kenya dominates the off-grid solar market in East Africa, accounting for 74% of total sales. Sales in Kenya have consistently increased over the last four reporting rounds, experiencing a 12% growth compared to the first half of 2023.
Oliver Reynolds, Senior Market Insights and Data Manager for GOGLA, noted that the ubiquity of mobile money, the payment solutions from PayGO was one of the factors contributing to Kenya being the first market in the region. Indeed, Kenya stands as one of Africa’s most mature off-grid solar markets with the highest adoption of the technology.
The proliferation of various programmes initiated by international organizations has also played a role in making this market mature. These are among the ongoing programme interventions:
- The Ministry of Energy is implementing the Kenya Off-Grid Solar Access Project for Underserved Counties (KOSAP), which is financed by the World Bank. The project closing date is expected to be extended until May 2025. To date, more than 20 firms have been selected to sell 250,000 solar home systems in 14 counties.
- The Sustainable Energy for Smallholder Farmers (SEFFA) project, operated by EnDev, IKEA Foundation, GIZ, and SNV, aims to provide up to €8 million (around $8.6 million) to support the productive use of renewable energy in the dairy and horticultural value chains in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.
- The Africa Enterprise Challenge Fund (AECF) Renewable Energy and Adaptation to Climate Technologies (REACT) program utilizes results-based financing (RBF). Funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, it offers financing for off-grid solar and clean cooking solutions, providing financial incentives for companies to reach the poorest households.
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