Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, has dealt a significant setback to the nuclear power industry’s aspirations of gaining ground in the country.
In its recently published 2023-24 GenCost report, the CSIRO reveals that large-scale nuclear power would come with a price tag roughly double that of wind and solar photovoltaics for new electricity generation ventures in Australia.
For the first time, the report presents cost estimates for nuclear power, drawing on data from South Korea adjusted to fit Australian conditions. The findings underscore that opting for nuclear would entail substantially higher expenses compared to ramping up the adoption of proven and increasingly cost-effective renewable energy technologies like wind and solar.
According to the CSIRO report, nuclear power would only be economically feasible in Australia if the country embarked on a sustained program of nuclear construction spanning decades, necessitating an initial investment in a costly first reactor.
These conclusions raise significant concerns about the financial feasibility of nuclear energy in Australia, a nation that has never operated a nuclear power plant and is sharply divided on the prospect of adopting this contentious technology.
Despite factoring in integration expenses such as storage and transmission, wind and solar power continue to emerge as the most economical choices for expanding electricity generation capacity in Australia, as outlined in the GenCost analysis.
Some have touted Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) as a more cost-effective alternative to traditional large-scale plants.
However, recent findings reveal that SMRs are actually more expensive. Capital cost estimates for SMRs saw a significant increase after a major US project was canceled due to escalating costs.
Moreover, the extensive development timelines of at least 15 years for new plants to become operational pose a significant obstacle to nuclear power adoption in Australia.
Given these factors, nuclear energy is unable to play a substantial role in helping Australia achieve its mandated emissions reduction goals for 2050 within the existing climate policy frameworks.
On the other hand, large-scale wind and solar farms usually have construction periods ranging from two to four years, enabling the swift deployment of renewables to replace Australia’s aging coal-fired power plants in the upcoming years at minimal expense.
The CSIRO’s thorough examination further supports the financial argument for Australia to persist in its shift towards a renewable energy-centric electricity grid, sidelining nuclear power as an exceptionally costly detour.
As the costs of renewables continue to decline, the discourse on nuclear power in Australia might conclude even before the construction of a single plant begins.