The amount of electricity generated from renewable sources worldwide is projected to exceed that from coal for the first time in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This milestone coincides with a notable surge in global electricity demand.
Demand Surge and Decarbonization Challenges
This surge in global demand “highlights the growing role of electricity in our economies but also the impact of severe heatwaves,” notes Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.
He emphasizes that the expansion of low-carbon generation methods is not yet rapid enough.
Hydroelectric, solar, wind, and other renewable sources are expected to collectively provide 35% of global electricity by 2025, up from 30% in 2023.
Solar Power’s Significant Contribution
Photovoltaic (PV) solar power alone is projected to account for half of the demand growth, with solar and wind together covering 75%, according to the IEA’s electricity report released Friday.
Electricity production from coal-fired power plants is not expected to decline immediately in 2024, due to a substantial increase in demand in China and India.
However, the IEA suggests that China’s hydroelectric capacity could surprise and ultimately reduce coal’s share and the overall CO2 emissions from the electricity sector this year.
Unprecedented Demand Growth
Globally, the IEA observes a return to annual demand growth at levels not seen since 2007 (excluding the post-Covid rebound).
Global electricity demand, driven by economic activity and the electrification of equipment, is projected to grow by 4% in both 2024 and 2025 (compared to 2.3% in 2023), according to the IEA.
Regional Variations
In the United States, where electricity demand declined last year due to mild weather, it is expected to grow by 3% this year, driven by economic activity, air conditioning needs, and the still-uncertain demands of data centers amid the rise of artificial intelligence.
In India, demand is projected to surge by 8% this year, partly due to the heatwaves the country is experiencing. In China, a 6% increase is anticipated.
In Europe, electricity demand is expected to grow by 1.7%, following two years of decline linked to the energy crisis and soaring prices.
Call for Accelerated Transition
“It is encouraging to see the share of clean energy growing, but it needs to happen faster,” comments Keisuke Sadamori, calling for strengthened grids and improved energy efficiency standards “to reduce the impacts of increasing air conditioning demand.”