After the Crises, RTE Confirms a “New Equilibrium” for the French Electricity Grid

During the first half of 2024, electricity production in mainland France reached 272 TWh, its highest level since 2019, according to RTE.

This significant increase is particularly attributed to the favorable conditions for the two main sources of electricity in France: nuclear power (65% of French production in the first half of 2024 and an increase of 19 TWh compared to the same period in 2023) and hydroelectricity (+ 11.1 TWh, or + 37% compared to the first half of 2023 and + 11% compared to the average of the first halves of 1991 to 2020), which benefited from “abundant rainfall in winter and spring.”

Wind and solar power generation also increased but to a lesser extent. It is worth noting that the French offshore wind farm produced 1.8 TWh in the first half of 2024 (compared to 0.8 TWh in the first half of 2023) thanks to the full commissioning of the Fécamp and Saint-Brieuc wind farms, which are in addition to the Saint-Nazaire wind farm.

On the other hand, electricity production from fossil fuel power plants “has never been so low since the 1950s,” accounting for nearly 4.2% of the French electricity mix in the first half of the year (with a production of 11.5 TWh).

RTE also indicates that electricity consumption in mainland France, adjusted for weather effects, was “very slightly higher than in the same period in 2023 (+0.4%) during the first six months of the year, while remaining much lower (-5% to -10% depending on the month) than before the health and energy crises.”

In other words, the drop in electricity demand following the health and energy crises (with a decline in economic activity and energy-saving efforts) “will have lasting effects,” according to the grid operator.

However, RTE still anticipates an increase in consumption in the coming years in the context of the electrification of uses. The “extent and horizon” of this evolution remain to be specified.

With low demand and a strong rebound in electricity production, France’s electricity trade balance “increased considerably to a record level” (+ 43 TWh in the first half of 2024 compared to + 18 TWh in the first half of 2023), the grid operator is pleased to report.

Given this “improvement in the fundamentals of supply-demand balance” and the drop in gas prices (- 32% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023), electricity prices on wholesale markets continued to decline, with an average spot price in France of €46/MWh over the first six months of the year.

This trend is particularly striking for forward prices: “the average prices in the first half of 2024 for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 reached €98.4/MWh, a threefold decrease compared to the previous year (€307.6/MWh in the first half of 2023 for delivery in the first quarter of 2024),” indicates RTE.

The grid operator also notes a multiplication of episodes of negative prices, with “233 hours at negative prices in the first half of 2024 compared to 53 in the first half of 2023,” given the low demand and the large volume of non-dispatchable production (in Spain, these episodes at zero or negative prices even amount to 620 hours over the nearly 4,400 first hours of the year).

In this regard, RTE particularly emphasizes the importance of developing solutions for consumption flexibility and storage (charging electric vehicles or water heaters, in particular).

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