Global photovoltaic (PV) installations are projected to reach between 600 and 660 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) in 2024, as per the latest analysis by polysilicon market specialist Bernreuter Research.
Head of Bernreuter Research and author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report, Johannes Bernreuter, anticipates accelerated demand once market participants recognize the bottom of the solar module price decline.
Leading Solar Module Suppliers Forecast Ambitious Expansion
The 2024 shipment targets of the world’s six largest solar module suppliers bolster Bernreuter’s projection. Jinko, Longi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar are collectively aiming for an average growth rate of 40%. Based on global PV installations of 444 GWdc in 2023, this rate could translate to a newly installed capacity of 622 GWdc in 2024.
Bernreuter anticipates that even if the leading players expand their market share as smaller manufacturers grapple with the prevailing low-price environment, new PV installations are likely to surpass 600 GWdc this year. He notes that the top six suppliers fell short of their shipment goals in 2023, suggesting a more conservative approach to their 2024 targets, leaving room for potential upward adjustments.
Supply-Side Indicators Suggest a Higher Growth Range
Bernreuter highlights that all supply-side indicators point to the higher end of the forecast range, between 630 GWdc and 660 GWdc. He expresses optimism that demand will catch up in the second half of the year, driven by the historically low module prices. This growth range would even exceed the high scenario of 620 GWdc presented in Bernreuter’s Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report.
Bernreuter’s analysis reaffirms the more aggressive forecast approach adopted in the report and concludes that China, with over 50% market share, will remain the key driver of global PV installations in the coming year.
About Bernreuter Research
Established in 2008 by Johannes Bernreuter, a renowned photovoltaic journalist in Germany, Bernreuter Research focuses on publishing global polysilicon market reports. Bernreuter authored his initial analysis on an impending polysilicon bottleneck and novel production processes back in 2001. Since releasing its first report in 2010, Bernreuter Research has earned a reputation for providing the most comprehensive and accurate polysilicon reports in the market.