Despite ambitious clean energy targets set by the Labour government, experts warn that the UK is not on track to construct sufficient wind and solar farms to achieve its goals.
This analysis underscores the immense obstacles in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Wind and Solar Growth Projections
According to forecasts by Cornwall Insight, wind and solar power are projected to contribute about 44% of Britain’s electricity by 2030, marking a significant increase from the 34.3% share in 2023.
However, this progress falls short of the estimated 67% required to fully decarbonize the UK’s power sector by 2030, a crucial pledge made by Labour during the general election campaign.
Analysis of Deployment Rates and Challenges
Cornwall Insight’s analysis examined typical deployment rates, factoring in the time required for developers to secure planning permissions, grid connections, and government subsidies where applicable.
The findings suggest that substantial changes to the UK’s energy project development processes are necessary for the 2030 target to be met. The previous Conservative government had set a more distant target of 2035 for power sector decarbonization.
Call for Government Intervention
“The discrepancy between our current trajectory and the new government’s 2030 target is considerable,” noted Tom Edwards, Principal Modeller at Cornwall Insight.
“Without significant intervention, we are at risk of severely underperforming in our decarbonization efforts.”
Recommendations for Streamlining Project Development
The findings follow a recent call by Stonehaven, another consultancy firm, urging the government to empower its planned National Energy System Operator (NESO) with the authority to determine the locations for large-scale energy projects.
Such projects should be granted automatic planning permission, they suggest. This proposal would be controversial, given existing community opposition to plans for new pylons to transmit electricity from wind farms to areas of demand.
Radical Action Needed to Tackle Planning Delays
Adam Bell, Director of Policy at Stonehaven and former head of energy strategy in the energy department, stressed the need for “radical action” to address “planning delays that are hindering vital developments.”
He emphasized the importance of a National Energy Plan to streamline the process, ensuring that new infrastructure is strategically built in areas with local support and where development is appropriate.
Progress and Challenges in Low-Carbon Power
The UK has made substantial strides towards a low-carbon power system, with low-carbon sources, including wind, solar, and nuclear, supplying 56.2% of domestic electricity in 2022.
To achieve its 2030 target, Labour pledged during the election campaign to double onshore wind capacity, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind.
Need for Additional Measures and Diversification
However, Edwards cautioned that the plan would fall short under the current “business as usual” scenario, without measures such as expediting grid connections and increasing government financial support for new facilities.
The 2030 goal also necessitates the development of weather-independent low-carbon power sources, like converting gas-fired power stations to run on hydrogen or equipping them with carbon capture technology.
Government Response and Review of Support
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, has indicated a willingness to review the budget supporting new offshore wind projects in the current auction round for state subsidy contracts, aiming to accelerate project implementation.
The government has affirmed its commitment to “taking immediate action by implementing our long-term plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower.”
Investing in Clean Power for Energy Security
The government further emphasized, “Investing in clean power is the only way to guarantee our energy security and protect billpayers permanently, which is why we will double onshore wind, treble solar, and quadruple offshore wind by 2030.”